Crystal ball gazing is invariably a perilous activity, especially in areas such as the economy, politics, and drug pricing reform, that are so prone to confounding factors. Despite this, it’s a useful exercise to predict, given what we know – historical precedent – and how we then expect the future to unfold.
In this post I’ll make some predictions on politics, the economy, and drug pricing reform, while a second post forecasts Covid-19 developments and public health.
Predictions on the economy and the 2022 midterms
The economy is experiencing an uneven recovery from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employment numbers have been robust for quite some time, and wages are increasing. But, inflation is stubbornly high, and labor and supply chain shortages threaten to hold back growth in certain sectors. And, while the stock market boom is consolation to some, there is a disconnect between what’s happening on Main versus Wall Street.
Moreover, globally there’s considerable uncertainty, exacerbated by a large set of unknowns. In fact, the biggest risks to the economy may come from geopolitical shocks.